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FFTAC Evidence Record: Sources and
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158 FFTAC Evidence Record: Sources and Reality Notes [1] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025 and SIPRI Yearbook 2026, Summary. SIPRI estimated global military expenditure of $2.887 trillion in 2025, the eleventh consecutive annual increase. [2] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Yearbook 2026: World Nuclear Forces. SIPRI estimated a global inventory of approximately 12,187 nuclear warheads in January 2026, including about 9,745 in military stockpiles and about 4,012 deployed with missiles or aircraft. [3] Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence, AI Index Report 2026. The report describes rapid improvement in AI capabilities during 2025, evaluation systems struggling to keep pace, accelerating adoption and investment, workforce disruption, and environmental costs. [4] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Yearbook 2026, Summary, chapter on artificial intelligence and international peace and security. The summary notes the expansion of military AI discussion beyond autonomous weapons into targeting, planning, intelligence analysis, and decision support, including reported uses in Gaza and Ukraine. [5] North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Summary of NATO's Revised Artificial Intelligence Strategy (2024) and Alliance Digital Strategy (2026). NATO identifies data, testing, resilient networks, human-machine collaboration, information advantage, mission superiority, and responsible use as central issues, while warning of AI- enabled information operations and disinformation. [6] United States Department of Defense, Directive 3000.09: Autonomy in Weapon Systems (2023) and Responsible Artificial Intelligence Strategy and Implementation Pathway (2022). The documents describe principles including responsibility, equity, traceability, reliability, and governability, including the ability to disengage or deactivate systems that demonstrate unintended behavior. [7] International Committee of the Red Cross, ICRC Position on Autonomous Weapon Systems and related legal guidance. The ICRC recommends legally binding rules, including prohibitions on unpredictable autonomous weapons and autonomous systems designed or used to apply force against persons.